Falling apart at the seams.

There’s a bad smell hanging over Westminster, the still rotting odour caused by the collapse in anything like competence being shown by both the Labour and the Tory parties. While Labour are gaining members at an astonishing rate, almost taking in as many new members in a weekend as the total number of members of each of the  next two parties. (SNP and Tories)  this is because of their civil-war.  Tories, although  riding the crest of the new PM wave, have a heap of problems being stored up. However they have the Media, aka air-cover for Tories, helping them out by not actually asking any awkward questions and not publishing anything the Tories don’t want us to see.  Although the Tories are presenting themselves as reunified it still seems that the whole edifice of British democracy is on the brink of falling apart at the seams.

Tories

Although their world looks rosy, there’s more than a few storms coming for them.  And they’ve still got to cover up   explain their Election Expenses.  29 Police Forces were investigating this before the Brexit vote.  It’s all gone far too quiet on this, partly because the Tories have their air-cover deployed on bombing runs over Jeremy Corbyn  and the standing target of the SNP.  PM May might find her honeymoon period becoming very short when Parliament goes on holiday recess and the only thing all the people who voted “Leave” find is how much more their holidays cost.  How will this play out do you think?  MPs running away from the heat which the public are starting to feel.  Oh, and then there’s Boris.  Bumbling around the world.  This can’t end well for the UK, never mind the Tories. Pretty much everyone (IMF) is downgrading their forecasts for the UK economy over the next year. How on earth they can do any credible forecast when the Tories haven’t got a plan for the economy beats me.  Oh, and the Teachers are striking. And the NHS Junior Doctors aren’t likely to be happy about  their new forced contracts. And 3 million EU citizens who have made their homes here don’t know if they’ll be allowed to stay (unless they’re earning more than £35,000 pa)

Labour

Where to begin?   When the Tories were being totally incompetent and trashing the countries short terms economic prospects, Labour decided to ignore that and have a civil war of their own. And it’s not over yet by any means.  So they’re useless as an opposition  (plus ca change…..)  while the Tories are getting away with, well, anything they want to.

My predication – Jeremy Corbyn will again win the public vote with a massive majority.  The MPs will refuse to recognise this. Labour will split. There’s no credible way back to join the PLP with the  Membership Labour Party (MLP).

 

 

Ireland

This is the doosie of a problem which no-one in the UK Government, aka The Tories, are yet talking about. How do you have one part of that island in the EU and the other part out?  The Good Friday Agreement, which has brought a decent amount of peace to the island realies on there being an open border.  What’s the plan for this one?  What’s  the timeline?   The Taoiseach of Southern Ireland has called for the EU to prepare for border poll in Ireland to see the two parts reunited.  he even likened it to East and West Germany.  So how does that affect the “United” Kingdom?

Scotland

Where to begin too?   Nicola Sturgeon is playing a long game, exhausting all the other options before going to the country  saying Independence is the only way to ensure  Scotland stays in the EU.  By then PM May will be having to deal with the problems outlined above.  As time goes by the impact of the Brexit vote will start to work through the UK economy and the Scottish economy.  If, as seems highly likely, this creates further uncertainty, it kind of plays into the SNPs hands in terms of another Independence Referendum.   If things are failing in the wider economy because of decisions taken in Westminster – well, it’s hard to defend the competency of that house. So it’s game on for another Indy Ref.  My prediction – sometime next year.

Scotland wants to remain in the EU, England’s going out.  It’s a very DisUnited Kingdom.

The EU

Although neither our UK Goverment nor it’s air-support media seems to have noticed, when you have a negotiation it means the party you are negotiating with have a say in what the outcomes will be.  We’ve got a Minister for Exit who is making all sorts of claims about what the UK will get.  Maybe, just maybe it won’t be that easy.  Maybe, just maybe the EU side of the negotiations won’t roll over and concede everything which the UK wants. There are 27 Nations to satisfy on the other side of the table.  how can we be so sure they’ll all give in to Britain’s demands without seeking a very real quid pro quo?   What have we got that we could bargain with anyway?    (more on this some other time)

The EU has its own problems with the continuing financial fiascos in Italy causing serious worry.  Greece is still a can being kicked down the road as there’s no chance of that country ever being able to repay the debt that’s been piled on it. So the EU is most cetainly not the land of milk and honey.

 

Bottom Line

There are soooo many things, soooo many storms approaching the UK Government that it’s hard to see  how they can avoid crashing and burning on some of them. Teachers, Doctors have to be solved  – both sets of people who have decent amounts of public support.

What does the UK want?  It seems that Scotland and Ireland want something completely different from England.  It’s hard to see how that can be resolved without seriously compromising someone’s desires.

Is there actually a coherent plan from the UK Government?   Theresa May made some bold statements when she got the top job, her chancellor hasn’t said much at all.  So are we still on with the Cam/Osbo Austerity policies?  It seems very much like now that the Tories have settled their internal party civil wars they’ve kind of forgotten about actually governing.  The lack of any opposition and the continuing air-cover they have means no-one is really challenging them. Which isn’t good.

Not a very conclusive post.  Sorry…….

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