Maybe I should start this as “Once upon a time”…. except I’d rather not draw parallels, however tempting it might be, with Wicked Queens in the South and heroic champions in the North. (Pause for thought – it’s funny to think that it’s always the North that’s the desolate, often frozen, wasteland. Think of the wall in Game of Thrones, it’s in the north too)
Anyway, it’s about time…. and a whole lot more. Let’s have a look at what’s possibly going to happen in the UK over the next few years against a timeline. It’s the way I think about big events and hopefully it might enlighten a few thoughts, or spark questions, from other people who read this. (assuming anyone does!!). I’m happy to add lines to this from anyone who reads it and then in a years time we can all look back on it and see how accurate we were.
- The Scottish Parliament calls for #scotref, a further referendum for the Scottish people to vote on independence to happen between Aug ’18 and April ’19
- The Tory UK Goverment enacts Article 50, with no ammendments and no protections for anyone.
- The Tory Goverment hands itself unimaginable power through the Great Repeal Bill.
- The Tory UK Government enacts the Investigatory Powers Bill and the Digital Economy Bill.
- The Tory UK Government offers no solace to EU nationals living and working in the UK while it is negotiating it’s Brexit “deal” with the EU.
- Inflation in the UK continues to rise, caused by the long term devaluation in the £ Sterling and wages continue to stagnate, leading to a lowering of disposable income for many in society.
- Businesses for whom it is (comparitively) easy to relocate head office and similar functions activate their Brext plans. ie they start moving jobs to EU countries.
- Northern Ireland holds a 3rd snap election in a 6 week period and Sinn Feinn wins outright control leading to them to seek re-unification with the South.
- Donald Trump resigns from the Presidency citing stress and wanting to spend more time with his family……. (impeachment hearings were being scheduled)
- UK Inflation is now running at between 4% and 5% and wages are, at best, rising at 1%
- Consumer confidence in the economy is falling, leading to overall confidence in the economy weakening.
- Wailing and gnashing of teeth, lurid media headlines abound.
The difficulty the media will have is knowing what story to headline with. As the Brexit bites start to mount up to being far more than just the little nibbles of voracious midges, what do they say about it all? Do they continue to attack Scotland for seeking to mitigate and minimise the unfolding disasters? Do they instead attack those who took the UK into this swamp? Who could they find – Nigel Farage has emmigrated to America (oh the irony of him becoming an immigrant, David Cameron has just gone into hiding and BoJo and Gove are protected from criticsm because thy’re part of “The Government”.
- Scottish people continue to reflect on the scenes before them.
- People from the EU are leaving the UK and this causes the predicted near collapse of NHS England.
- The Electoral Commission implements the electoral boundary changes, which most commentators/analysts forecast will benefit only the Tory party.
- The Labour party implodes and splits into smaller factions.
- N.Ireland launches a formal process/referendum to rejoin the South of Ireland. The EU supports this move and says the precendent for N.Ireland staying in the EU when reunified exists. See German reunification for details.
- Belfast starts to suffer from a property bubble as people flock there from England.
- The Tory budget lowers Corporation Tax to 12.5% and moves the pension age to 70.
- Spain makes overtures to Gibraltar about becoming a “Spanish Protectorate”
- The UK Formally leaves the EU, without a negotiated settlement. The UK falls back on WTO trading terms.
- The Tory UK Government calls a snap election as it becomes clear that the WTO rules are damaging to the UK economy.
- The Tory party is returned to Westminster as a majority government, despite receiving less than 30% of the popular vote. (Remember that bit about changing the electoral boundaries…. it pays back in spades for the Tories as they achieve a historic third succesive term in Government)
- The UK is now set for a Tory Government until 2024 and all bets are off about them losing those elections thus raising speculation that the UK could have two decades of uniterrupted right wing Government.
- Scotland holds #scotref with another astonishingly high turnout and independence is backed by 58% to 42%
- N.Ireland and Scotland both start the formal processes of leaving the United Kingdom.
What can we add to this story? Who wants to contribute to it?