Its not often I’ll blog twice in the same day, but there’s some interesting theories I’ve read today and wanted to bookmark and share.
Both are suggesting that one of the reasons May was forced into calling a snap General Election was to give the SNP a “bloody nose”.
What were the circumstances a mere 50 days ago.
- She was about to go into negotiations with the EU over Brexit
- She had a majority in Westminster
- Holyrood had just passed a vote to formally request a further referendum on independence for Scotland – crucially to be carried out at the time when the details of Brexit were known.
Paraphrasing the blogs I’ve read today, May would not have been in a strong position to use any Scottish assets as negotiating collateral with the EU while there was a further independence referendum on the statute books. The Scottish Government would have been able to ensure the EU knew that May was offering collateral which might not have been hers to offer. And the EU would recognise that. It’s not just the oil, it’s farming and fisheries too and all of Scotland’s other resources and assets.
May took the gamble of the General Election to get Scotland back under her control. The polls said England was no threat and with the combined firepower of the BBC/STV/Newspapers supporting the “Ruth Davidson Party” nor would Scotland be a problem. But it’s not turned out that way. The Scottish strategy was successful, just exactly as planned. Possibly even more successful than planned. But England didn’t play ball, catastrophically so for the Tories. Does the SNP have a ‘bloody nose”? sort of. The loss of 21 seats hurts, the loss of Angus Robertson and Alex Salmond hurts too , as do all the others. Remember folks, they might not be in Westminster but they are still very much alive and kicking and working for the good of Scotland. And we’ve still got all our resources – and the formal request from Holyrood to carry out the next Indyref. That request might be the most valuable single act the SNP has yet undertaken for Scotland – as long as they don’t bottle out of making it happen.
So, my message to my fellow Scottish and independence supporters is do not be disheartened. We are not down and out by any means. We are still the dominant party in Scotland by a country mile – no matter how the media try to spin it But we absolutely must stick to the stated demands and plans for a further indyref when the details of Brexit are known.
Remember the spider in the cave!!
Go and have a read at this : https://wildernessofpeace.wordpress.com/2017/06/09/the-downside-up/
and this is from a post on Facebook from the “Scottish Political Perspective”
The plot thickens…
It comes to mind that, purely from Whitehall’s point of view, in order for Brexit to go forward ‘the Whitehall way’, and to avoid the risk of a breakdown of law and order in England should Scotland’s wish for a second referendum come through and derail the negotiation, the only UK way to mitigate the effect of Scotref was to call a snap election and fight a two front campaign for the Tories.
The first, in England, was based on ‘strong and stable leadership’, four simple words, while the second, in Scotland, was based on the four words mantra, just as simple, ‘no second independence referendum.’
Clearly, May missed the plot in England, where she lost the little majority she had prior calling her snap election. England is literally facing an identity crisis. The little surge of New Labour UK PLC has destabilized the little political strength she had.
But in Scotland, with the rise of a toxic Toryism, we must realise that the mantra ploy clearly worked on quite a few. A surge of three hundred thousands voting Tory is difficult to explain, were it not the fact that, compare to 2015, 225 000 less people voted on June 8th, 2017.
Brexit is, of course, the key to it all. The mere idea that Scotland held a sword of Damocles over Whitehall by calling a second referendum during the Brexit talks would have weakened the Prime Minister, and strengthen the EU. Hence Theresa May calling the snap election, and hence the insistence of breaking the independence spirit on our side of the border.
The petard, however, just exploded back in her face. Had she reached over a majority, instead of losing the one she had, her plan would have worked fine but her situation is now worse than it was prior calling the snap election.
In effect, she did Scotland a favour. Let me explain.
As everyone is aware, I am a fervent supporter of Scottish independence. I believe that the quicker we gain back the sovereignty of Scotland, the better.
What this latest election did show us is firstly the apathy of many to vote (a quarter of a million Scots did not bother turning up at the polling stations compared to the 2015 GE), and, secondly, the fact that the ‘no second independence referendum’ mantra strategy worked in Scotland (as against the ‘strong and stable leadership’ one in England, how ironic!)
The SNP being given a bloody nose mid-term of this UK government, and all for the wrong reasons, in order to keep the UK whole at any cost, has set a sense of defeatism and of Scots losing any real sense of themselves as a nation. And that is exactly what May and Davidson hoped for. But that, however, will change very quickly. Once the Brexit negotiation are engaged, I think Scots will realize that the 80% vote emanating from England and taking us out of the EU against our wishes will indeed truly make us poorer on all levels.
Looking at the Southern agricultural map of Scotland, it voted Tory. Yet, they are the ones that will be most hit by Brexit, something that many farmers have yet failed to realize. The same will apply to the Scottish Fisheries Commission.
So, let me be clear to farmers in Scotland.
Defra will not take over the EU subsidies allocated to Scots farmers. There are two reasons for this. Notwithstanding the fact that the UK kitty is empty, it has always been the policy of Defra not to support the UK agriculture industry as a whole, and that of Scotland in particular. Even when previously negotiating for a EU deal on behalf of Scottish farmers, it negotiated for a bad deal rather than a better one. The truth is, the UK government prefers to import foodstuff rather than supporting its own foodstuff industry. That is a fact. And now that Brexit negotiation is looming, don’t expect the UK government to think about you.
The same, of course, will apply to the Scottish fisheries industry. It was deemed, years ago, as an expendable industry by the UK government, and they will do the same again. But, for some weird reason, that industry still hopes that this UK Tory government will stand by them. They will be, within a few weeks, very disappointed. You will be sold away without a second thought, do mark my words…
From my point of view, Toryism of the May or Davidson kind is toxic and a pervertion of sane politics. In fact, whereas the EU was helping Scotland, both socially and economically, to think of itself as a true country, Scotland being taken out of it against its will suits Whitehall to perfection. It means that mammoth institution will be able to squeeze our assets until Scotland bleeds. I kid you not. I am terribly serious about this. Even my friends in Europe are worried that because Scotland voted so overwhelmingly in favour of staying in the EU, the UK government will make us pay a very high price for it. And I tend to agree with them.
Whether May or Davidson, with their wholesale cuts in public services, of the Scottish Government total grant, of the rape clause, of victimizing the poor and the vulnerable, never mind the way the Tories will rape our side of the North Sea with regards to the billions of barrels of oil in it, we will pay the price.
Now, either we submit to this, in other words, we all lie back with our legs up in the air and let this UK government screw us all (a bit crude as an image but, sadly, precisely what they will do to us), or we rise and take a collective responsibility to tell May, or whoever will soonish succeed to her, that enough is enough and that they can get stuffed.
No more complacency. No more lack of motivation with regards to voting. No more thinking that the SNP will/can mitigate whatever the Tories will throw at us. Under a restrained budget, with no right to borrow, the SNP government can only do so much.
The only ones who can make a difference are ourselves by turning that toxic Tory trend and focusing clearly on the coming independence referendum.
The Tories think they have cracked that Scottish wall… I want that crack filled up, fast, and the parasitic Tory party in Scotland surrounded and checked from all sides. Let us be relentless with them over the next 21 months, the way they have been relentless against Scotland since 2010.
Independence is, in my view, inevitable, no matter how Davidson feels about it. And the Tory party knows it. That is why they have been so active to fight it.
Let June 8th be their last political battle in Scotland and let’s work to win the war. Give the tories no quarters. Run the tory party down to the ground. It has no moral rights within Scottish society, and no mandate to rape Scotland.
As for Theresa May, she is now alone, friendless and the laughing stock of the EU. She is neither strong or stable or even a leader of any kind. She is completely isolated, having linked herself with a party with paramilitary links and nothing less than a bigotted history. Theresa May is toast, while the SNP, even with a reduced contingent in Westminster, is still the 3rd party in Westminster and still the biggest party in Scotland.
I say ‘Scotland free in March 2019’ and the hell with the tories.